A factor that gets overlooked is getting to the foul line. The 2015–16 team had
its second lowest free throw rate under Roy Williams.
Free throw rate measures a team’s ability to get to the foul line. It takes a
team’s free throw attempts and divides them by their total field goal attempts.
UNC ranked 285th in the country with a 32.3 offensive FTRate. Under
Williams, it was only lower in 2013, when UNC turned in a 28.2 FTRate.
The Tar Heels didn’t get to the foul line often a year ago. UNC attempted 826
free throws out of 2,560 total shots.
FTRate = 826 / 2560 x 100 = 32.3
Free throw rate puts more value on getting to the foul line. Not making foul
shots. Volume is more important. The assumption is that over time, a team
that attempts more free throws is better than a team that makes more free
throws.
In 6 of Roy Williams first 9 seasons on the UNC bench, the Tar Heels made more
free throws than their opponent attempted.
They haven’t done that since 2012.
So what’s happened since 2012?
Let’s try to answer this using FTRate. Remember free throw rate measures a
team’s ability to get to the foul line and prevent its opponent from getting to
the foul line.
On the offensive side, UNC’s best FTRate was turned in by ’05 National
Championship team at a 44.2 clip.
And in 10 of the past 13 years, the offensive FTRate was at least 37 or
higher. 3 of the 4 lowest FTRates have come in the last 4 years, including
35.2 in 2015 and 32.3 in 2016.
And on defense, UNC has turned a defensive FTRate lower than 30 in 8 out of
the last 13 years. The best was in the 2011–12 season where it led the country
at a 21.8 clip.
Over the last 3 seasons, the Tar Heels have posted some of their worst defensive
FTRates under Roy Williams. The 2013–14 season was the highest at 41.4, while
last season saw a 30.4 clip.
It’s clear UNC is getting to the foul line less frequently than it once did
under Williams, and they’re committing fouls that send their opponents to the
foul line more frequently.
So will this trend change in the 2016–17 season?
The trend in FTRate comes down to the players on the court. Past behavior is the
best way to predict future behavior, so let’s take a look at this current
roster’s ability to get the line and not commit fouls.
Let’s do this with 2 individual metrics:
Free throw attempts per 40 minutes (FTA per 40)
Fouls committed per 40 minutes (FC per 40)
And for fun, let’s compare this against previous players during the Roy Williams
era. Active players are in bold, list sorted by FTA per 40.
The differences are stark. No surprise that Tyler Hansbrough attempted 11.30 free throws per 40 minutes because Hansbrough has made more free throws (982) than anyone in NCAA history.
Ty Lawson, a
guard, attempted 6.10 free throws per 40 minutes over his career. That total
beats any player’s career mark on the current roster, including post players
like Hicks and Meeks.
On the flipside, the current roster has 4 out of the top 8 worst fouls committed
per 40 minutes over their careers. Hicks (6.54) and Maye (5.84) are tops.
But it’s not really fair to compare this current roster with the rosters from
the past. It’s a totally different team and group of players. Even a different
game with rule changes like a 30-second shot clock.
We can compare some of the players to themselves and get more context.
For example, Kennedy Meeks averaged 6.18 free throws per 40 minutes in his
first 2 years on the court. Last season? Only 3.59 free throws per 40
minutes.
With a healthy Meeks, you should expect more free throws from the senior.
And every preview about the upcoming UNC season mentions Isaiah Hicks’ foul trouble. Hicks committed an alarming 6.7 fouls per 40 minutes last season.
UNC play-by-play announcer, Jones Angell,
signaled Hicks had at least 4 or 5 fouls in 19 out of 40 games played last
season on the Carolina Insider podcast. And this mark was even slightly higher in his sophomore season, at 6.8 fouls per 40 minutes.
While staying out of foul trouble is important for Hicks, he’s likely UNC’s best
chance to get to the foul line too.
Because Hicks averaged the most free throw attempts, 6.8 per 40 minutes, amongst any Tar Heel last season. Yes, even more than 2016 KenPom Play of Year Brice Johnson’s 6.6
attempts per 40 minutes.
Will Joel Berry II be more aggressive and get to the foul line?
What about newcomers like Tony Bradley, Brandon Robinson, and Seventh Woods?
And can the entire team play defense without fouling too?
Who knows. But if UNC makes more free throws than its opponents attempt for the
first time since 2012, you can expect the Tar Heels being in the hunt in March.
And maybe April too.